# Why are flights so expensive right now? > Why are flights so expensive in 2026? Jet fuel near record, airlines cutting seats, fares up 22% in a year. Whether it's an all-time high, and what to do now. - Source: https://clevertourists.com/resources/why-are-flights-so-expensive - Authors: Evan & Clara, Clever Tourists (first-hand, from years of travel across 20 countries) - Published: 2026-10-25 **Flights are expensive in late 2026 mainly because jet fuel roughly doubled after the Strait of Hormuz disruption and airlines responded by cutting seats, adding surcharges and raising bag fees. Fares are at a record in plain dollars, but not in real terms: adjusted for inflation, the average US domestic ticket is still roughly a third below its 1999-2000 peak.** That distinction matters less to your wallet than the speed of the rise. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics airline fares index was up about 22% between September 2025 and September 2026, against overall inflation of under 4%. Below is what the data actually shows, what is driving it, whether it is likely to ease in 2027, and what you can do about it this year. ## Are airfares at an all-time high? Nominal yes, real no It depends which number you look at, and the headlines often mix them up. • **In nominal dollars: yes.** The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), which tracks the average domestic ticket actually paid, reported a first-quarter 2026 average of about $428, the highest unadjusted figure in its records. • **Adjusted for inflation: no.** BTS's own inflation-adjusted series peaks at around $660 in 2000, so today's average fare is still roughly 30 to 35% below the late-1990s high in real terms. Its most recent comparable high is mid-2022, when post-pandemic demand outran capacity. • **Speed of increase: unusually fast.** The BLS consumer price index for airline fares rose about 22% year on year to September 2026, and the separate BLS index for international air passenger fares rose about 12% over the same period. Fare increases of that size in a year are rare outside 2022. • **Holiday trips: the sharpest jump.** Hopper's 2026 holiday index puts average US domestic round trips at about $402 for Thanksgiving (up roughly 31% on 2025) and about $452 for Christmas (up roughly 23%). So the honest headline is not "the most expensive flights ever". It is "the fastest rise in years, on top of fares that were already high in dollar terms". ## Driver 1: jet fuel Fuel is the single biggest reason. Analysts at Deutsche Bank put jet fuel at about 30% of airline costs. After shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted in early 2026, IATA's jet fuel monitor showed the global average price jumping from about $99 a barrel at the end of February to about $209 in early April. IATA expects airlines' 2026 fuel bill to rise by close to 40%, to around $350 billion, and industry profit to roughly halve. It has not gone away. In the week of 23 October 2026 the tracking firm Argus put the average US jet fuel price at about $4.75 to $4.90 a gallon, close to its all-time high and almost double a year earlier. Airlines that hedged less fuel in advance feel it most, which is why surcharges show up first on some carriers, for example Porter in Canada and FlySafair in South Africa, which itemised fuel surcharges on tickets this year. Europe and Asia have had tighter fuel supply than the Americas, so routes there were hit harder at the peak of the disruption. ## Driver 2: fewer seats When fuel is expensive, airlines cut the flights that barely made money rather than run them at a loss. In autumn 2026 United pulled some December flying and signalled more cuts into early 2027, American scaled back thin routes, and Southwest halved its planned 2026 capacity growth. Fewer seats on the same demand means the cheapest fare buckets sell out sooner. There is an older supply problem underneath. Pratt & Whitney's geared turbofan engine, used on many Airbus A320neo-family jets, needed extra inspections that grounded large numbers of aircraft from 2023. Groundings have been falling, and Pratt & Whitney's stated goal is single digits by the end of 2026, but airlines spent three years flying fewer planes than they planned. ## Driver 3: demand that hasn't flinched, and fees Airlines are raising prices because people are still paying them. Delta's chief executive described consumer resistance to higher fares as limited, and Hopper's economist expects most travellers to keep their holiday trips rather than cancel. Strong demand plus fewer seats is exactly when fares rise fastest. The ticket price also understates the real cost. Carriers raised checked-bag fees during 2026, and basic-economy fares that exclude seat selection, carry-ons on some airlines, and changes make the headline number look lower than what most people end up paying. Note that the BLS fare index excludes bag fees, so the true increase in trip cost is higher than its 22%. ## Will flight prices go down in 2027? **Probably not quickly.** IATA's director general Willie Walsh has said the fuel impact could last into 2027 even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, partly because of damage to Middle East refining capacity. The Global Business Travel Association forecasts global airfares up about 4.7% in 2026 and a smaller rise of about 1.5% in 2027, which means prices levelling off rather than falling back. Ryanair's chief executive has warned European short-haul fares could rise 15 to 20% in summer 2027 if fuel stays high. What would bring fares down: a sustained fall in jet fuel, airlines adding back the capacity they cut, and more grounded A320neo jets returning to service. None of those is guaranteed on a 2027 timeline, so plan on today's prices rather than betting on a drop. ## What to do about it Since you can't change fuel prices, change the parts of the trip you control. The full tactics are in [how to find cheap flights](https://clevertourists.com/resources/how-to-find-cheap-flights); the short version: • **Make the long-haul leg the one you plan hardest.** On a 526-day, 20-country route the expensive flights were the few that crossed regions: Romania to the Philippines in November 2022, Australia to New Zealand to Japan in early 2023, South Korea to Germany in July 2023. The hops within a region (Japan to Vietnam, Vietnam to Bali) were a small share of the total. Timing for each type is in [how far in advance to book international flights](https://clevertourists.com/resources/how-far-in-advance-to-book-international-flights). • **Avoid peak dates where you can.** Thanksgiving and Christmas fares are up the most this year. A trip a week either side is usually cheaper than any booking trick. • **Offset the fare with a cheaper destination.** Once you land in Vietnam, Thailand or Albania, daily costs are low enough to absorb a pricier ticket; see [cheapest countries to visit in 2027](https://clevertourists.com/resources/cheapest-countries-to-visit-2027) and [daily travel budget by country](https://clevertourists.com/resources/daily-travel-budget-by-country). • **Price the bag fee before you compare.** A basic-economy fare plus a checked bag can cost more than the standard fare. • **Insure non-refundable tickets.** With carriers cutting flights at short notice, check what your [travel insurance](https://clevertourists.com/resources/travel-insurance-for-international-trips) covers for schedule changes. ## Frequently asked questions ### Are airfares at an all-time high in 2026? In nominal dollars, yes: BTS reported a record average US domestic fare of about $428 in early 2026. Adjusted for inflation, no: fares are still roughly a third below the peak of around $660 in 2000. ### How much have flight prices gone up in 2026? The BLS airline fares index rose about 22% between September 2025 and September 2026, and international air passenger fares rose about 12%. Hopper puts Thanksgiving domestic round trips up roughly 31%. ### Why are flights so expensive right now? Mainly jet fuel, which roughly doubled after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, plus airlines cutting seats, higher bag fees and demand that has stayed strong. ### Will flight prices go down in 2027? Probably not quickly. IATA says the fuel impact could last into 2027, and the GBTA forecasts fares still rising slightly, about 1.5%, in 2027.