# Where Should You Travel in Winter for Warm Weather, Month by Month from November to March?

> Our real winter route: Philippines in November, Thailand Dec-Jan, Australia and New Zealand Jan-Mar, Japan for cherry blossom. Why each month works, with met data.

- Source: https://clevertourists.com/resources/where-to-travel-this-winter-our-route-november-to-march
- Authors: Evan & Clara, Clever Tourists (first-hand, from a 526-day trip across 20 countries)
- Published: 2026-10-21

From November 2022 to April 2023 we followed the warm, dry weather through five countries: **the Philippines (8 November – 7 December)**, **Thailand (7 December – 21 January, with New Year in Chiang Rai)**, **Australia (21 January – 19 February)**, **New Zealand's South Island (23 February – 18 March)** and **Japan from 18 March** for the cherry blossom. For winter 2026–27 the same order still works, and each country's weather agency backs it up. The Philippine dry season runs **December to May** (PAGASA). Thailand's cool season lasts until about **mid-February** (TMD). Southern Australia and New Zealand are in **summer from December to February**. Tokyo's cherry trees usually open around **24 March** (JMA). The one leg we would change is tropical Queensland in February: Cairns averages **436 mm of rain** that month (BoM). Below is each leg with our dates, why the month works, the official climate figures and our itinerary pages for each country.

## The route at a glance

These are our real dates from the 526-day trip. The logic is to stay in each region during its best weather and leave before it turns: the tropics in their dry season, the southern hemisphere in its summer, then north to Japan as spring arrives.

• **November to early December: the Philippines.** Manila, then Palawan (Sabang, Port Barton, El Nido, Coron), then Cebu (Oslob, Moalboal, Cebu City).

• **December to mid-January: Thailand.** Bangkok, the old capitals (Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, Sukhothai), Lampang, Chiang Mai, **Chiang Rai over New Year (28 December – 4 January)**, Mae Hong Son, then south to Khao Sok and Ao Nang, and back to Bangkok.

• **Late January to mid-February: Australia.** Melbourne (21–25 January), the Great Ocean Road at Apollo Bay, the Grampians at Halls Gap, Coonawarra, Adelaide, Alice Springs, then Queensland (Townsville, Magnetic Island, Cairns, the Daintree) and Sydney.

• **Late February to mid-March: New Zealand's South Island.** A self-drive loop from Christchurch via Lake Pukaki, Glenorchy, Te Anau, Milford Sound, Queenstown, Wanaka, Fox Glacier and Arthur's Pass.

• **From mid-March: Japan.** Tokyo from 18 March, then through the Alps to Kyoto, Osaka and Hiroshima.

It is the winter mirror of our [where to travel this summer](https://clevertourists.com/guides/collection-where-to-travel-this-summer) list.

## November and December: the Philippines

PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency, divides the year into a **rainy season from June to November** and a **dry season from December to May**, which it splits into a **cool dry season (December to February)** and a hot dry season (March to May). It puts the **peak of the typhoon season from July to October**, with an average of **20 tropical cyclones a year** in the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

We arrived on 8 November, at the tail of the rainy season, and left on 7 December as the dry season began. If you have the choice, **December to February** is the safer window for Palawan, where the island-hopping boats out of El Nido and Coron depend on calm seas; in November, plan a spare day in case tours are cancelled. Our [El Nido guide](https://clevertourists.com/guides/el-nido) and [Coron guide](https://clevertourists.com/guides/coron) give the same best months.

Our [4-week Philippines route](https://clevertourists.com/resources/philippines-itinerary-our-4-week-route-palawan-to-cebu) lists every stop with its days, and the [2-week Palawan cut](https://clevertourists.com/resources/philippines-itinerary-2-weeks-palawan) is the short version.

## December and January: Thailand

The Thai Meteorological Department dates the country's cool season (winter) from roughly **mid-October to mid-February**, when the northeast monsoon brings dry air from the north. In its winter outlook of 14 October 2026, as reported by the Thai press, TMD expects winter in upper Thailand to start around the **third week of October 2026**, about a week later than average, and end around **mid-February 2027**, with the coldest spell from **late December to early February**.

That is why we did the **north first, in December and January**: our [Chiang Rai guide](https://clevertourists.com/guides/chiang-rai) gives highs in the high 20s°C and mornings that can drop to around 10 to 13°C, and the agricultural burning that brings smoke to the north builds from February. We were in Chiang Rai from **28 December to 4 January**, which is peak season, so book that week early.

The **Andaman coast (Khao Sok, Ao Nang)** came last, in mid-January, during its calm-sea months. The **Gulf islands** are the exception: the same monsoon brings heavy rain to the southern east coast in November and December, so a winter route ends on the Andaman side.

Our [6-week Thailand route](https://clevertourists.com/resources/thailand-itinerary-our-6-week-route-bangkok-north-to-the-andaman) has every stop, and [Thailand in 2 weeks](https://clevertourists.com/resources/thailand-itinerary-2-weeks) is the short version.

## Late January and February: Australia

Australia in January and February is summer, but "warm" means three different things depending on where you are. These are Bureau of Meteorology station averages:

• **Melbourne (Olympic Park):** January mean maximum **26.8°C**, minimum 16.5°C, 53 mm of rain. The record at this station only starts in 2013. Our [Melbourne guide](https://clevertourists.com/guides/melbourne) warns that summer weather there changes fast, so pack a layer.

• **Alice Springs (airport):** mean maximum **36.6°C in January and 35.3°C in February**, with about 42 mm of rain a month and around 10 hours of sunshine a day. This is heat, not beach weather; plan walks for early morning.

• **Cairns (airport):** February mean maximum 31.3°C, but **436 mm of rain over about 16 rain days**, the wettest month of the year. **Townsville** gets 313 mm in February. BoM's northern wet season runs from about October to April.

So the south (Melbourne, the Great Ocean Road, Adelaide) is at its best in January and February, and the tropical north is not. We went to Queensland in early February anyway. Our [Tropical North Queensland guide](https://clevertourists.com/guides/tropical-north-queensland) is honest that May to October is better, both for drier weather and to avoid the **November-to-May marine stinger season**. If you want a winter route, put Queensland in the shoulder months, or swap it for more time in the south.

## Late February and March: New Zealand's South Island

Late February into March is the end of the southern summer. NIWA's 1991–2020 averages give **Christchurch a mean daily maximum of 22.2°C in February and 20.3°C in March**, **Queenstown 21.8°C and 19.1°C**, and **Lake Tekapo**, near Lake Pukaki, 22.2°C in February. The days are warm and the nights cool.

The exception is the west of the Southern Alps. **Milford Sound averages 467 mm of rain in February and 571 mm in March** (about 6,545 mm a year), so take the fiord cruise in whatever weather you get. Heavy rain also brings out the waterfalls on the cliffs.

We spent **23 days on the South Island from 23 February to 18 March 2023**. Our [23-day road trip itinerary](https://clevertourists.com/resources/new-zealand-south-island-itinerary-our-23-day-road-trip) has every stop and drive, the [10-day version](https://clevertourists.com/resources/new-zealand-south-island-itinerary-10-days) is the short cut, and our [Lake Pukaki guide](https://clevertourists.com/guides/lake-pukaki) covers the stop under Aoraki / Mount Cook.

## Mid-March onwards: Japan for the cherry blossom

We flew to Tokyo on **18 March 2023**. That year the JMA's sample tree in Tokyo opened on **14 March** and reached full bloom on **22 March**, against the 1991–2020 normals of **24 March** and **31 March**. Further along our route, Kanazawa's trees reached full bloom on 30 March 2023, while we were there. March is still cool: Tokyo's normal March high is **14.2°C** and its low 5.0°C (JMA).

For 2027, our [cherry blossom forecast](https://clevertourists.com/resources/japan-cherry-blossom-2027-forecast-tokyo-kyoto-guide) tracks the official forecasts as they come out, and our [33-day Japan itinerary](https://clevertourists.com/resources/japan-itinerary-our-33-day-route-tokyo-to-hiroshima) is the route we took north to south through the Alps. If you'd rather go to Japan in the winter months themselves, see [Japan in winter](https://clevertourists.com/resources/japan-in-winter-december-january-february-weather-packing-guide) for the weather and New Year closures.

**Shorter version for winter 2026–27:** with one month, do Thailand's north and the Andaman coast in December and January. With two, put the Philippines (from December) in front of it. With three or more, add southern Australia and New Zealand for February and March, then finish in Japan in late March.

## Plan the seasonal details

Read our guides to [El Nido and Coron in the dry season](https://clevertourists.com/resources/el-nido-coron-dry-season-best-time-palawan-guide), [Melbourne in January and the Australian Open 2027](https://clevertourists.com/resources/melbourne-in-january-australian-open-2027-guide), [Chiang Mai haze](https://clevertourists.com/resources/chiang-mai-burning-season-2027-haze-travel-guide), [Morocco in winter](https://clevertourists.com/resources/morocco-in-winter-weather-sahara-atlas-ramadan-2027-guide), [Nyepi 2027 in Bali](https://clevertourists.com/resources/nyepi-2027-bali-date-airport-closure-travel-guide) and [Venice Carnival 2027](https://clevertourists.com/resources/venice-carnival-2027-dates-winter-travel-guide) before fixing dates.

## Frequently asked questions

### Where is warm to travel in January?

Thailand and the Philippines are in their dry season, with Thailand's cool season lasting to about mid-February. Southern Australia is in summer: Melbourne's January mean maximum is 26.8°C. Avoid tropical Queensland if you want dry weather, since it is the wet season there.

### Is November a good time to visit the Philippines?

It is the shoulder month. PAGASA's rainy season runs June to November and the dry season December to May, and the typhoon peak is July to October. We were there from 8 November, but December to February is the safer window for island-hopping boats in Palawan.

### Is northern Thailand cold in December?

Cool rather than cold: highs in the high 20s°C, with mornings that can drop to about 10 to 13°C in Chiang Rai. TMD's 2026 outlook expects the coldest spell from late December to early February. Bring a jacket for the mornings.

### Is February a good time to visit Cairns?

Only if you accept wet-season weather. Bureau of Meteorology averages give Cairns 436 mm of rain over about 16 rain days in February, the wettest month, and marine stingers are present from November to May. May to October is the better time.

### What is the weather like in New Zealand's South Island in March?

Late summer: NIWA averages give Christchurch a 20.3°C mean daily maximum in March and Queenstown 19.1°C. Milford Sound is very wet year-round, about 571 mm in March.

### When do the cherry blossoms open in Tokyo?

The JMA normal is 24 March for first flowering and 31 March for full bloom. In 2023, when we arrived on 18 March, Tokyo opened on 14 March and reached full bloom on 22 March, so check the forecast for the year you go.

## Official sources

- [PAGASA: Climate of the Philippines](https://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/information/climate-philippines)
- [PAGASA: Tropical cyclone information](https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information)
- [Thai Meteorological Department](https://www.tmd.go.th/en)
- [Bureau of Meteorology: Melbourne (Olympic Park) climate statistics](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_086338.shtml)
- [Bureau of Meteorology: Alice Springs Airport climate statistics](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_015590.shtml)
- [Bureau of Meteorology: Cairns Aero climate statistics](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_031011.shtml)
- [Bureau of Meteorology: northern Australia wet season](https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2603/northern-australia-wet-season-lives-up-to-its-name/)
- [NIWA: climate averages 1991–2020](https://www.niwa.co.nz/education-and-training/schools/resources/climate)
- [JMA: cherry blossom flowering dates](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/sakura003_07.html)
- [JMA: cherry blossom full-bloom dates](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/sakura004_07.html)
- [JMA climate normals 1991–2020: Tokyo](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/stats/etrn/view/nml_sfc_ym.php?prec_no=44&block_no=47662)